Mid-Season Market Moves: How Crop and Livestock Trends Are Shaping 2025 Agriculture

This summer’s market landscape hasn’t given growers much room to relax. Prices are moving. Inputs remain elevated; and weather isn’t making it easy to lock in projections.

Corn saw a modest lift in early July. DTN pointed to tightening global supply and dry stretches across the Central Plains. After a strong start to the year, good planting pace, decent early rain, June turned up the heat. Spotty rainfall changed the math. Traders pulled back, then adjusted again. By mid-July, December corn futures hovered near $4.90. Not a surge. But a directional shift.

Soybeans have moved with a different set of pressures. Exports drive the story there. China’s demand for U.S. beans has stayed relatively stable. Not booming, but steady enough to support prices. What’s different this year is Brazil. Their crop hit global markets just as U.S. growers were watching late-season weather. That competition’s pushed soybean futures into a narrow band, between $11.80 and $12.20, give or take. If late summer turns dry, U.S. supply could tighten. That’s what a few analysts are watching now.

Wheat has followed its own pattern. Global politics, more than supply, are moving that market. The war in Ukraine continues to disrupt Black Sea exports. Russia’s role in global wheat flows has added volatility. U.S. prices for soft red winter wheat pushed past $6.20 per bushel in early July. Quality issues in some domestic regions are also influencing basis prices.

On the input side, there’s been a bit of relief, though not much. Fertilizer markets have settled after steep climbs in 2022 and 2023. Nitrogen prices, in particular, leveled out in late spring and early summer. Still high by historical standards. Just less erratic. Diesel, tied to crude, has ticked up again. Harvest and hauling costs will reflect that.

Another storyline gaining traction is storage strategy. Some producers, especially in the Corn Belt, are backing off forward contracts. Instead, they’re holding grain longer, betting on more favorable basis conditions after harvest. That decision brings risk but also flexibility. Progressive Farmer reports more growers investing in on-farm storage or renegotiating local delivery terms.

Underneath all of this is a market defined by interconnection. Weather, exports, fuel, fertilizer, they all collide. Global headlines shift local strategy. And producers are adapting. Slowly, carefully, with margins still narrow.

As July ends, most are watching two things. What weather does next, and how export dynamics evolve heading into fall.

Livestock Markets and Producer Outlook

Livestock producers are navigating a tight landscape this summer. Prices are holding in some sectors, slipping in others. Feed remains volatile. Demand is uneven. The result is cautious movement across most operations.

Cattle markets have held up better than expected. Live cattle futures in early July were near $187 per hundredweight, a slight increase over June levels. Reduced feeder supply is one reason. Herds are still recovering from previous drought cycles, especially across the Plains. That has kept numbers tight, giving feedlots a little pricing strength. Operating costs are still high, but solid retail demand has provided a cushion.

Feeder cattle markets tell a more uncertain story. While prices haven’t dropped significantly, there’s hesitancy. Some operators are delaying placements. Corn prices have jumped around, which changes feed cost calculations. The balance between input and return is delicate, and most are waiting to see how the rest of the season shapes up before making bigger commitments.

Hog producers are in a tougher position. Lean hog futures slipped below $91 per hundredweight in recent weeks. Weaker export activity, especially from China, has pulled some support from the market. Domestic demand is steady, not strong. Feed costs, especially soybean meal, are a problem for margins. Unless one of those factors improves, pressure will likely persist into the fall.

Poultry markets remain relatively balanced. Broiler production is stable, and wholesale prices are tracking with output. Earlier avian flu outbreaks disrupted supply chains in a few key areas, though. Those events affected export performance, particularly to East Asia and some Middle Eastern markets. Biosecurity remains top of mind, with many producers boosting on-farm controls to prevent further losses.

Input costs continue to shape decisions across all segments. Feed remains the biggest variable. Prices haven’t spiked, but modest fluctuations in corn or soybean meal still have a big impact on tight-margin operations. Many producers are taking a conservative approach, managing inventories more tightly, reworking rations where possible, and keeping flexibility in marketing.

According to DTN’s Ag Confidence Index, sentiment is cautiously positive. Most operators believe they can manage the year, but concerns remain. Labor remains a challenge. Trade dynamics are still shifting. Regulatory uncertainty, especially around environmental standards and processing oversight, adds one more layer of complexity.

Weather continues to play a central role. Late summer heat could push corn prices higher, especially if yields dip. That risk is built into most feed budgets already, but few producers are eager to test how thin margins can stretch. Flexibility in herd management and feed sourcing remains a priority.

For now, there’s no single trend driving livestock. Each segment is moving on its own timeline, shaped by its own mix of supply, demand, and risk. Most producers are adapting quietly, watching markets closely, avoiding overcommitment, staying mobile.

The second half of 2025 will depend on what happens with feed, exports, and retail demand. No one is planning for a windfall. But with steady planning and tight management, most feel they can hold position.